Masters tips from Fellow Artisan

From the Huts very own John Mckiterick....F1!

 

Fellow Punters

Having scanned yesterday's results and news, I see no evidence to change my opinions or drastically change the analysis. So ........

Following an abysmal Cheltenham festival in terms of profit and loss and a 'just as bad' Grand National (backed Sue Smith's other runner at all odds from 300/1 down to 150/1) it's time to get some money back in the bank. The Masters 2013......

The first observation is that Tiger is back. The confidence is shining through and the putting is certainly noteworthy BUT the driving is still prone to the odd 'double-cross' (trying to hit a right-to-left or a left-to-right and doing the opposite). At 7/2 only the really rich AND foolish would be tempted. Why not wait and back him if he is in the running after 2 rounds?

 

Rory MCIlroy also seems to be coming out of a trough of poor performances but likewise the odds do not reflect his chances. Anyhow enough of those that are unattractive at the odds and over to the overpriced and attractive.

First up 2 massive priced runners.

 

RICHARD STERNE is currently the best golfer on the European tour. Back after a serious injury he seems to have lost nothing in terms of length or short-game skills. If you accept that the European tour is as strong as the PGA tour (and looking at Ryder Cup results it actually looks stronger) then it is baffling that the current PGA No 1 is 7/2 and STERNE is 200/1. STERNE is a physically small man in golfing terms but is unflappable, surprisingly long off the tee, can hit the ball both ways and is no stranger to fast greens. The price is an insult.

 

RUSSELL HENLEY is a relatively new name. Unfortunately, his existence reminds me of a huge missed opportunity last year. Thorbjorn Olesen at 66/1 (100/1 in a place) to make the top 10 in The Open was an absolute steal. A steal I blatantly forgot to make. HENLEY is far from average and is an excellent putter. There is an argument often put forward that you need to 'know' Augusta in order to play Augusta. This is NOT born out by the stats. HENLEY is full of swagger and hits it high - particularly with short clubs. Add a fearless putting stroke and the 150/1 looks awfully big. As far as Olesen is concerned - I am not sure that either his ball flight or slight dip in putting form would form a good basis for backing him for this event: he is a Major winner in waiting though. 100/1 for HENLEY as First Round leader is, for this flamboyant character, more than fair.

 

And now 2 more.......

NICOLAS COLSAERTS is in poor form. Excellent! The reason that this is excellent is that his price reflects that fact and not what type of player he really is. On form he is formidable. He becomes 'on form' in the blink of an eye. IF, and I admit it is a pretty big IF, he should start well then watch him go! 100/1 is more than his current poor form warrants. 80/1 or better First Round leader should be grabbed.

There are swings of beauty, there are swings of sheer power and then there are the "what the hell is that?". Undoubtedly in this last category are Jim Furyk and Rickie Fowler who are both on good form. Also in this Ugly swingers category comes my No 1 selection for WINNER. FREDDIE JACOBSON - no longer a FREDERIK as he sees it as Un-American - who seems to fight every notion that the club should be kept on-line or that it is a game of rhythm and tempo. FJ (FootJoy's ultimate marketeer?) simply does it his way and what ends up on the scorecard looks a lot prettier than his swing. 150/1 in a lower-than-normal field size makes FJ, unlike THAT swing, very attractive indeed.

For those interested in my thoughts of those at the top of the market, I see SNEDEKER (33/1), KUCHAR (33/1) and GARCIA (40/1) as some value. I am only put off COETZEE (150/1) because of his inability to put a good last round together. To have a cover bet I shall be looking to T J VOGEL to be Top Amateur - a market that the bookies get wrong more than right (6/1 in a field of 6).

 

In summary:-

TO WIN - JACOBSON (150/1) , STERNE (200/1) , COLSAERTS (100/1) , HENLEY (150/1). (approx. w/o Woods Market = 90/1, 150/1 and 80/1 respectively).

FIRST ROUND LEADER - COLSAERTS (80/1) and HENLEY (100/1).

Dangers at 2 figure or less prices - SNEDEKER (33/1), KUCHAR (33/1) and GARCIA (40/1).

TOP AMATEUR - T J VOGEL (6/1)

NOTE - Prices generally available: Exchanges may offer better odds.

PLEASE NOTE - I MAY ISSUE IN-RUNNING ADVICE AS WELL AS "HOW AM I DOING" REPORTS THIS YEAR !!!

Enjoy!

F1